Azerbaijan for Eurovision victory?

My probability model of Eurovision Song Contest voting is predicting victory for Azerbaijan in tonight’s contest in Oslo. The model has a high success rate but this year the contest is more open than normal with several countries in with a shout.

Predictions for the top-10 are:

1. Azerbaijan 1.14
2. Armenia 1.56
3. Israel 3.46
4. Germany 3.66
5. Turkey 4.51
6. Greece 5.42
7. Denmark 6.87
8. Ireland 7.97
9. Belgium 14.58
10. Romania 15.48

and for last place:

25. United Kingdom 133.65

…a few hours later…and the winner is…GERMANY…


Deserving winner but a rubbish performance for the computer model (r2 0.51 for correlation between prediction and result) but at least it got the UK result correct.

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